Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dynamo Moscow win with a probability of 40.77%. A win for FC Krasnodar had a probability of 32.98% and a draw had a probability of 26.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dynamo Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.55%) and 2-0 (6.34%). The likeliest FC Krasnodar win was 0-1 (7.8%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.26%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood.