Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spartak Moscow win with a probability of 50.02%. A draw had a probability of 27.15% and a win for Astana had a probability of 22.83%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spartak Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.87%) and 2-0 (8.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.61%) , while for a Astana win it was 0-1 (7.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood.