Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spartak Moscow win with a probability of 54.93%. A draw had a probability of 24.58% and a win for Sochi had a probability of 20.49%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spartak Moscow win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.36%) and 1-2 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.14%) , while for a Sochi win it was 1-0 (6.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood.