Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sochi win with a probability of 44.4%. A win for Aktobe had a probability of 30.13% and a draw had a probability of 25.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sochi win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9%) and 2-0 (6.91%). The likeliest Aktobe win was 1-2 (7.48%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.31%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood.