Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rodina Moskva win with a probability of 38.5%. A win for Sochi had a probability of 34.3% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rodina Moskva win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.26%) and 0-2 (6.92%). The likeliest Sochi win was 1-0 (10.09%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.9%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood.