Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shanghai Shenhua win with a probability of 47.19%. A win for Rodina Moskva had a probability of 29.18% and a draw had a probability of 23.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shanghai Shenhua win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.45%) and 0-2 (6.79%). The likeliest Rodina Moskva win was 1-0 (7.09%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.53%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood.