Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sanfrecce Hiroshima win with a probability of 46.48%. A win for Shanghai Shenhua had a probability of 29.39% and a draw had a probability of 24.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sanfrecce Hiroshima win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.85%) and 2-0 (7.34%). The likeliest Shanghai Shenhua win was 1-2 (7.16%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.26%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood.