Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spartak Kostroma win with a probability of 41.94%. A draw had a probability of 31.63% and a win for Rodina Moskva had a probability of 26.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spartak Kostroma win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.41%) and 2-0 (7.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (14.39%) , while for a Rodina Moskva win it was 0-1 (9.37%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood.