Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spartak Kostroma win with a probability of 42.01%. A draw had a probability of 31.74% and a win for Volgar Astrakhan had a probability of 26.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spartak Kostroma win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.99%) and 2-1 (7.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.91%) , while for a Volgar Astrakhan win it was 0-1 (10.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.7% likelihood.