Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rodina Moskva win with a probability of 42.25%. A win for Yenisey Krasnoyarsk had a probability of 30.13% and a draw had a probability of 27.57%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rodina Moskva win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.17%) and 0-2 (7.77%). The likeliest Yenisey Krasnoyarsk win was 1-0 (9.66%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.69%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood.