Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Yenisey Krasnoyarsk win with a probability of 47.37%. A win for Surkhon Termez had a probability of 26.62% and a draw had a probability of 26.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Yenisey Krasnoyarsk win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.2%) and 2-0 (8.02%). The likeliest Surkhon Termez win was 0-1 (7.44%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.17%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood.