Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Orenburg win with a probability of 49.19%. A draw had a probability of 26.32% and a win for Surkhon Termez had a probability of 24.49%.
The most likely scoreline for a Orenburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.33%) and 2-0 (8.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.11%) , while for a Surkhon Termez win it was 0-1 (8.03%).