Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spartak Moscow win with a probability of 67.64%. A draw had a probability of 19.43% and a win for Yelimay Semey had a probability of 12.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spartak Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.42%) and 2-1 (10.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.4%) , while for a Yelimay Semey win it was 0-1 (4.06%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood.