Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Yelimay Semey win with a probability of 42.33%. A win for Urartu had a probability of 33.08% and a draw had a probability of 24.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Yelimay Semey win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.52%) and 2-0 (6.4%). The likeliest Urartu win was 1-2 (7.48%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.92%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood.