Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Urartu win with a probability of 38.3%. A win for Qingdao Youth Island had a probability of 36.93% and a draw had a probability of 24.77%.
The most likely scoreline for a Urartu win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.69%) and 0-2 (5.55%). The likeliest Qingdao Youth Island win was 1-0 (7.84%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.09%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood.