Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bars win with a probability of 44.48%. A win for Sochi had a probability of 29.86% and a draw had a probability of 25.66%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bars win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.98%) and 0-2 (7.24%). The likeliest Sochi win was 1-0 (7.77%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.6%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood.