Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Orenburg win with a probability of 40.55%. A win for Akron Tolyatti had a probability of 31.56% and a draw had a probability of 27.89%.
The most likely scoreline for a Orenburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.24%) and 2-0 (7.38%). The likeliest Akron Tolyatti win was 0-1 (10.28%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.68%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood.