Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Orenburg win with a probability of 36.43%. A win for Alashkert FC had a probability of 34.1% and a draw had a probability of 29.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a Orenburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.95%) and 2-0 (5.47%). The likeliest Alashkert FC win was 0-1 (8.87%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.23%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 8% likelihood.