Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Orenburg win with a probability of 46.41%. A draw had a probability of 28.32% and a win for Mornar had a probability of 25.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Orenburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.85%) and 2-0 (8.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.27%) , while for a Mornar win it was 0-1 (8.75%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.