Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Akhmat Grozny win with a probability of 38.33%. A win for Baltika had a probability of 31.94% and a draw had a probability of 29.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a Akhmat Grozny win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.63%) and 2-0 (7.43%). The likeliest Baltika win was 0-1 (11.15%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.54%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.5% likelihood.