Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spartak Moscow win with a probability of 60.55%. A draw had a probability of 24.05% and a win for Akhmat Grozny had a probability of 15.39%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spartak Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.28%) and 2-1 (8.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.93%) , while for a Akhmat Grozny win it was 0-1 (5.59%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood.