Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spartak Moscow win with a probability of 51.88%. A draw had a probability of 24.71% and a win for Lokomotiv Moscow had a probability of 23.44%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spartak Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.95%) and 2-0 (8.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.5%) , while for a Lokomotiv Moscow win it was 0-1 (6.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 10% likelihood.