Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lokomotiv Moscow win with a probability of 42.92%. A win for Rubin Kazan had a probability of 30.53% and a draw had a probability of 26.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lokomotiv Moscow win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.85%) and 0-2 (7.24%). The likeliest Rubin Kazan win was 1-0 (8.38%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.24%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood.