Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pakhtakor Tashkent win with a probability of 43.7%. A win for Rubin Kazan had a probability of 28.7% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pakhtakor Tashkent win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.6%) and 0-2 (8.43%). The likeliest Rubin Kazan win was 1-0 (9.73%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5% likelihood.