Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pakhtakor Tashkent win with a probability of 60.3%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Obolon Kyiv had a probability of 16.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pakhtakor Tashkent win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.4%) and 1-2 (9.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.91%) , while for a Obolon Kyiv win it was 1-0 (6.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood.