Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CSKA Moscow win with a probability of 46.51%. A win for Lokomotiv Moscow had a probability of 27.69% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a CSKA Moscow win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.11%) and 2-0 (6.73%). The likeliest Lokomotiv Moscow win was 1-2 (6.66%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood.