Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lokomotiv Moscow win with a probability of 58.57%. A draw had a probability of 24.84% and a win for Akhmat Grozny had a probability of 16.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lokomotiv Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.38%) and 2-1 (9.03%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.99%) , while for a Akhmat Grozny win it was 0-1 (6.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood.