Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lokomotiv Moscow win with a probability of 59.9%. A draw had a probability of 23.76% and a win for Nizhny Novgorod had a probability of 16.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lokomotiv Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.73%) and 2-1 (9.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.64%) , while for a Nizhny Novgorod win it was 0-1 (5.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood.