Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelyabinsk win with a probability of 40.94%. A win for Nizhny Novgorod had a probability of 29.87% and a draw had a probability of 29.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelyabinsk win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.4%) and 1-2 (8.22%). The likeliest Nizhny Novgorod win was 1-0 (9.38%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (12.46%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood.