Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Baltika win with a probability of 42.81%. A draw had a probability of 29.52% and a win for Akhmat Grozny had a probability of 27.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a Baltika win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.18%) and 2-1 (7.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (12.59%) , while for a Akhmat Grozny win it was 0-1 (10.23%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood.