Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Baltika win with a probability of 40.7%. A draw had a probability of 30.34% and a win for Fakel had a probability of 28.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Baltika win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.2%) and 2-1 (7.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.96%) , while for a Fakel win it was 0-1 (11.71%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.9% likelihood.