Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spartak Moscow win with a probability of 44.5%. A draw had a probability of 28.56% and a win for Rostov had a probability of 26.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spartak Moscow win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.74%) and 0-2 (8.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.89%) , while for a Rostov win it was 1-0 (9.62%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.