Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Krasnodar win with a probability of 39.18%. A win for Akhmat Grozny had a probability of 33.28% and a draw had a probability of 27.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Krasnodar win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.49%) and 0-2 (6.7%). The likeliest Akhmat Grozny win was 1-0 (9.4%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.94%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood.