Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Baltika win with a probability of 62.22%. A draw had a probability of 22.47% and a win for Nizhny Novgorod had a probability of 15.31%.
The most likely scoreline for a Baltika win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.23%) and 2-1 (9.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.44%) , while for a Nizhny Novgorod win it was 0-1 (5.63%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood.