Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nizhny Novgorod win with a probability of 39.63%. A win for Sochi had a probability of 32.87% and a draw had a probability of 27.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nizhny Novgorod win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.14%) and 2-0 (6.86%). The likeliest Sochi win was 0-1 (9.39%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.4%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood.