Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Krasnodar win with a probability of 55.47%. A draw had a probability of 27.19% and a win for Baltika had a probability of 17.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Krasnodar win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.29%) and 2-1 (9.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.61%) , while for a Baltika win it was 0-1 (6.88%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood.