Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zenit St Petersburg win with a probability of 53.16%. A draw had a probability of 25.57% and a win for FC Krasnodar had a probability of 21.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zenit St Petersburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.99%) and 2-1 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.21%) , while for a FC Krasnodar win it was 0-1 (6.99%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood.