Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dynamo Moscow win with a probability of 37.7%. A win for Zenit St Petersburg had a probability of 36.01% and a draw had a probability of 26.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dynamo Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.33%) and 2-0 (6%). The likeliest Zenit St Petersburg win was 0-1 (8.76%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood.