Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 60.88%. A draw had a probability of 21.1% and a win for Famalicao had a probability of 18.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.96%) and 1-0 (9.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.9%), while for a Famalicao win it was 1-2 (4.94%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.