Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estoril Praia win with a probability of 39.69%. A win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 33.19% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estoril Praia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.38%) and 2-0 (7.18%). The likeliest Estrela Amadora win was 0-1 (9.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Estoril Praia would win this match.