Primeira Liga | Gameweek 33

May 11, 2025 at 6pm UK

Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas

Moreirense
2 - 2
Estoril

Martins (21'), Marcelo (55')
Martins (33'), Augusto Modesto Rafael dos Santos (43'), Pinto (82'), Alan (90')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Bacher (76'), Marques (80')
Alvaro (45+1'), Maria Salgueiro Costa Pessoa Carvalho (84'), Bacher (90+1'), Carvalho (90+4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Primeira Liga clash between Moreirense and Estoril Praia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Moreirense

All competitions

Last Game: Porto 3-1 Moreirense
Friday, May 2 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Estoril Praia

All competitions

Last Game: Estoril 1-2 Benfica
Saturday, May 3 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 42.07%. A win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 31.83% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.81%) and 2-0 (7.34%). The likeliest Estoril Praia win was 0-1 (8.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.4%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Moreirense	Draw	Estoril Praia
42.07% ( -0.45)	26.09% ( -0.02)	31.83% ( 0.47)

Both teams to score 52.97% (

0.25)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.63% (

0.24)

51.37% (

-0.24)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.81% (

0.21)

73.19% (

-0.21)

Moreirense Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.81% (

-0.12)

24.19% (

0.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.48% (

-0.17)

58.52% (

0.17)

Estoril Praia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.87% (

0.44)

30.13% (

-0.44)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.72% (

0.53)

66.28% (

-0.53)

Score Analysis

Moreirense 42.07%

Estoril Praia 31.83%

Draw 26.08%

Moreirense	Draw	Estoril Praia
1-0 @ 10.34% ( -0.14) 2-1 @ 8.81% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 7.34% ( -0.12) 3-1 @ 4.17% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 3.47% ( -0.07) 3-2 @ 2.5% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.48% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 1.23% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.74% Total : 42.07%	1-1 @ 12.4% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 7.29% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 5.28% ( 0.04) 3-3 @ 1% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.08%	0-1 @ 8.74% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 7.44% ( 0.08) 0-2 @ 5.25% ( 0.08) 1-3 @ 2.98% ( 0.07) 2-3 @ 2.11% ( 0.04) 0-3 @ 2.1% ( 0.06) Other @ 3.22% Total : 31.83%