Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 77%. A draw had a probability of 14.7% and a win for Moreirense had a probability of 8.29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.54%) and 1-0 (9.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.98%), while for a Moreirense win it was 0-1 (2.74%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.