Primeira Liga | Gameweek 32

May 2, 2025 at 8.15pm UK

Estadio Do Dragao

Porto
3 - 1
Moreirense

Moura (40'), Omorodion (70' pen., 79')
Pepe (33'), Eustaquio (42'), Loader (90+1')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Lincon Farias de Sousa (31')
Rodrigues (23'), Pinto (36'), de Brito Gonzaga (71')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Primeira Liga clash between Porto and Moreirense, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Porto

All competitions

Last Game: Estrela Amadora 2-0 Porto
Saturday, April 26 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Moreirense

All competitions

Last Game: Moreirense 1-1 Nacional
Sunday, April 27 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 77.44%. A draw had a probability of 14.8% and a win for Moreirense had a probability of 7.79%.

The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.02%) and 1-0 (10.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.02%), while for a Moreirense win it was 0-1 (2.81%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.

Result
Porto	Draw	Moreirense
77.44% ( 0.64)	14.77% ( -0.41)	7.79% ( -0.23)

Both teams to score 44.42% (

0.41)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

61.12% (

1.16)

38.88% (

-1.15)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

38.81% (

1.2)

61.19% (

-1.2)

Porto Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

91.76% (

0.42)

8.24% (

-0.42)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

71.19% (

1.04)

28.81% (

-1.03)

Moreirense Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

48.41% (

0.23)

51.59% (

-0.23)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

14.26% (

0.15)

85.74% (

-0.15)

Score Analysis

Porto 77.43%

Moreirense 7.79%

Draw 14.77%

Porto	Draw	Moreirense
2-0 @ 13.24% ( -0.18) 3-0 @ 11.02% ( 0.07) 1-0 @ 10.61% ( -0.36) 2-1 @ 8.77% ( -0.06) 3-1 @ 7.29% ( 0.09) 4-0 @ 6.88% ( 0.18) 4-1 @ 4.55% ( 0.15) 5-0 @ 3.43% ( 0.16) 3-2 @ 2.41% ( 0.05) 5-1 @ 2.27% ( 0.12) 4-2 @ 1.51% ( 0.06) 6-0 @ 1.43% ( 0.09) 6-1 @ 0.95% ( 0.07) Other @ 3.08% Total : 77.43%	1-1 @ 7.02% ( -0.19) 0-0 @ 4.25% ( -0.24) 2-2 @ 2.9% ( -0) Other @ 0.59% Total : 14.77%	0-1 @ 2.81% ( -0.14) 1-2 @ 2.32% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 0.93% ( -0.04) Other @ 1.72% Total : 7.79%