Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 75.63%. A draw had a probability of 16.2% and a win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 8.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-2 with a probability of 14.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (12.57%) and 0-3 (11.07%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.64%), while for a Estrela Amadora win it was 1-0 (3.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 1% likelihood.