Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rio Ave win with a probability of 45.96%. A win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 28.02% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rio Ave win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.12%) and 2-0 (8.36%). The likeliest Estrela Amadora win was 0-1 (8.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.37%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rio Ave would win this match.