Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 42.27%. A draw had a probability of 29.3% and a win for Boavista had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.58%) and 1-2 (7.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.25%), while for a Boavista win it was 1-0 (11.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gil Vicente would win this match.