Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santa Clara win with a probability of 37.85%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 34.95% and a draw had a probability of 27.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santa Clara win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.49%) and 0-2 (6.61%). The likeliest Arouca win was 1-0 (9.86%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.79%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5% likelihood.