Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 39.67%. A win for Leeds United had a probability of 32.88% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.3%) and 2-0 (7.29%). The likeliest Leeds United win was 0-1 (10.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.