We said: Southampton 1-2 Leeds United
Leeds appear to have a more coherent strategy than Southampton at present, so we can see them winning in what should be an open, entertaining affair.
The Saints do have individual quality, but it may take time for them to click having changed formation and signed several young players this summer.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 39.67%. A win for Leeds United had a probability of 32.88% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.3%) and 2-0 (7.29%). The likeliest Leeds United win was 0-1 (10.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.