Premier League

Premier League | Gameweek 22

Jan 31, 2024 at 7.30pm UK

Etihad Stadium

Man City
3 - 1
Burnley

Alvarez (16', 22'), Rodri (46')
Ederson (75'), Doku (81')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Al Dakhil (90+3')
Ekdal (21'), Roberts (75')

Reaction

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Feb 2, 14:52

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Manchester City

All competitions

Premier League

Last Game: Spurs 0-1 Man City
Friday, January 26 at 8pm in FA Cup

Goals
for

Top scorers

Burnley

All competitions

Premier League

Last Game: Burnley 1-1 Luton
Friday, January 12 at 7.45pm in Premier League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 88.59%. A draw had a probability of 7.8% and a win for Burnley had a probability of 3.58%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 3-0 with a probability of 11.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 4-0 (9.82%) and 2-0 (9.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (3.6%), while for a Burnley win it was 1-2 (1.18%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.

Result
Manchester City	Draw	Burnley
88.59% ( -0.81)	7.84% ( 0.55)	3.58% ( 0.26)

Both teams to score 46.53% (

-0.62)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

78.32% (

-1.75)

21.69% (

1.76)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

59.54% (

-2.46)

40.46% (

2.47)

Manchester City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

96.97% (

-0.35)

3.03% (

0.36)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

86.38% (

-1.26)

13.62% (

1.27)

Burnley Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

47.98% (

-0.46)

52.02% (

0.47)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

13.99% (

-0.3)

86.02% (

0.31)

Score Analysis

Manchester City 88.59%

Burnley 3.58%

Draw 7.84%

Manchester City	Draw	Burnley
3-0 @ 11.23% ( 0.32) 4-0 @ 9.82% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 9.63% ( 0.6) 3-1 @ 7.34% ( 0.11) 5-0 @ 6.87% ( -0.29) 4-1 @ 6.42% ( -0.13) 2-1 @ 6.3% ( 0.31) 1-0 @ 5.51% ( 0.52) 5-1 @ 4.49% ( -0.26) 6-0 @ 4% ( -0.32) 6-1 @ 2.62% ( -0.25) 3-2 @ 2.4% ( 0) 4-2 @ 2.1% ( -0.07) 7-0 @ 2% ( -0.24) 5-2 @ 1.47% ( -0.1) 7-1 @ 1.31% ( -0.17) Other @ 5.11% Total : 88.59%	1-1 @ 3.6% ( 0.29) 2-2 @ 2.06% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 1.58% ( 0.2) Other @ 0.61% Total : 7.84%	1-2 @ 1.18% ( 0.08) 0-1 @ 1.03% ( 0.12) Other @ 1.37% Total : 3.58%