Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County Under-23s win with a probability of 40.85%. A win for Chelsea Under-23s had a probability of 36.39% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County Under-23s win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.02%) and 0-2 (5.22%). The likeliest Chelsea Under-23s win was 2-1 (7.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.8%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood.
